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BLUF
The U.S. is at war, a new war. A hybrid war carried out by an unknown enemy, fought in an obscure battlespace. Globally and locally, Low Intensity Conflict (LIC) is changing the modern warzone by broadening the prevalence of ongoing threats below the threshold of traditional armed conflict. This theater of operations is known as the gray zone.
The U.S. is currently at war in this zone. LIC is a tactic used in Hybrid Warfare. This form of conflict is classified as 4th and 5th Generation Warfare.
Hybrid Warfare
Hybrid Warfare refers to the use of unconventional methods as part of a multi-domain warfighting approach. These methods aim to disrupt and disable a targets ability to engage. Why? Simply because the adversary is unknown.
Russia’s hostilities with Ukraine (2021-2023) are an example of this form of Hybrid Warfare. It has involved an array of activities including disinformation, economic manipulation, use of proxies and insurgencies, diplomatic pressure and military actions. The same is true with the conflict regarding Israel and pro-Palestinian efforts to degrade support for Israel by stoking civil unrest and conducting cyberattacks against supporting countries.
LIC in the United States
Low Intensity Conflict has established its foothold on the developing gray zone of the U.S. Until recent years, many would argue that the U.S. is a country with the most freedoms, most progressive civil rights and acceptance of diverse beliefs. One that has strong economy, the greatest military strength, and most natural resources. By all calculations, the U.S. has no need to be to be at conflict with itself. However, if you watch the news; you’d think we are at the brink of a civil war. You’ll see racists, domestic terrorists, mass murderers, homeless persons, etc. There’s no argument they exist, but the amplification of the negative creates strife and makes money. Who profits from exaggerating divisions?
The LIC in these gray zones thrives due to the ambiguity of law, ambiguity of actions and attribution, and because the impact of the activities does not justify a response. Information technology is a vulnerability that is being targeted by two key threats: cyber attacks, and the subversion of our democratic institutions and social cohesion.
How Is It Fought?
LIC is fought with propaganda campaigns, economic pressure, and the use of non-state entities that do not cross over the threshold into formalized state-level aggression.
The easiest way to destroy a country is to do so from within. This preserves natural resources and maintains a labor force. Win the war by,
☑destroying (or controlling) the political aspect
☑creating distrust and hate among the population.
Hybrid Warfare is a strategy that uses political warfare, conventional warfare, irregular warfare and cyberwarfare; then blends it with influencing methods, such as fake news, diplomacy, lawfare and foreign electoral intervention. By combining kinetic operations with subversive efforts, the adversary intends to avoid attribution or retribution. Hybrid warfare can be used to describe the flexible and complex dynamics of the gray zone.
A hybrid adversary uses a combination of conventional and irregular methods. Methods and tactics include conventional capabilities, irregular tactics, irregular formations, diplomacy, politics, terrorist acts, indiscriminate violence, criminal activity, PSYOP, and information warfare. A hybrid adversary also uses clandestine actions to avoid attribution or retribution. The methods are used simultaneously across the spectrum of conflict with either a unified strategy (when performed by an organized adversary) or a non-integrated approach (when performed by unwitting by proxy entities).
Mass Media
The expansion of mass communication networks offers powerful propaganda and recruiting tools. The use of fake news websites to spread false stories is an element of hybrid warfare. The most powerful form of psychological operations work with mainstream media and social media platforms. This most often is used by controlling the executives of such networks in order to influence hiring of sympathizers and selection of content to be disseminated. Social platforms can be controlled by selective censorship and increasing impressions of content that supports the narrative.
How to Spot LIC
We need to continuously analyze our environment to determine if the conflict we’re observing is gray activity centric or predictable outcomes of common existence.
☑Low income man robs a gas station, stabs clerk | normal, expected – no national attention | not LIC.
☑Police officer shoots knife wielding attacker causing social uproar | normal, expected – national attention | possible LIC.
Both of the above should be considered as expected behavior or consequences. Bad people do bad things. We know there are bad people. A police response to an active and imminent threat should also be considered acceptable. What’s not common, is the unproportionate response to a common occurrence. Is this response being exacerbated by an adversary (domestic or foreign)? When we see common place (whether good or bad) occurrences, receive national attention in a manner that sows discord, hate, violence, and disruptions; LIC is likely at play.
The gray zone is obscure. Are we in it?
This article was originally written by the Grayman Briefing. Stay in the know. Sign up for Intel and Situational Awareness alerts pushed to your phone on emerging threats and preparedness warnings. Click HERE to subscribe to the Grayman Briefing.
Photo by Fujiphilm on Unsplash
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